Iraq WMD Estimate

The 2002 intelligence estimate on Iraqi weapons that proved wrong

Overview

The October 2002 National Intelligence Estimate judged that Iraq possessed chemical and biological stockpiles and was reviving nuclear work, building on fragmentary sources that included the fabrication later known as Curveball. After the 2003 invasion, the Iraq Survey Group found no stockpiles. Official reviews in 2004 cataloged analytic failures, groupthink, and the weight of assumptions over evidence. The estimate became the most examined intelligence document of its era and the standing case study of politicized and failed analysis. Estimates thereafter carried noted dissents prominently, a direct institutional response to the failure.